- 1 Week 1 Sunday Afternoon Recreation Script Metrics
- 2 All in One Rankings
- 3 Vegas Info
- 4 Protection Towards the Position
- 5 DAPs by Recreation for Week 1 2019
- 6 Week 1 Sunday Afternoon Recreation Script Metrics
- 7 DET vs ARI
- 8 MIN vs ATL
- 9 BAL vs MIA
- 10 NYJ vs BUF
- 11 LAR vs CAR
- 12 SEA vs CIN
- 13 CLE vs TEN
- 14 DAL vs NYG
- 15 LAC vs IND
- 16 KC vs JAX
- 17 PHI vs WAS
- 18 TB vs SF
Week 1 Sunday Afternoon Recreation Script Metrics
All in One Rankings
Week 1 Sunday Afternoon Recreation Script Metrics. Welcome to the Week 1 2019 Season utilizing my ALL in ONE (AIO) rankings evaluation. I have gathered using meta-data processes PPR, NON-PPR, and Half PPR rankings. I positioned all these rankings into the identical numerical scale of 100 to Zero (greatest to worst). This normalization permits us to construct panorama views of Groups, Positions, and Players.
Week 1 Sunday Afternoon Recreation Script Metrics. Vegas info I exploit consists of recreation point totals in addition to the factors spread. There’s proof that complete recreation factors does correlate with passing yards, recreation touchdowns, in addition to QB Fantasy Factors. I can at present modeling the Vegas metrics and hope to a full evaluation in my 2020 textbook.
This yr I’ll view the games when it comes to excessive passing, mid-level, and low levels of passing. Games with excessive predicted Vegas complete recreation points must be filled with passing PPR goodness while low predicted Vegas complete recreation points not a lot.
Protection Towards the Position
Week 1 Sunday Afternoon Recreation Script Metrics. Earlier this yr, I revealed articles using the 2018 defense towards the position (DAP) metrics. Excessive DAP suggests a simple recreation script for that place. I exploit to set lineups and concentrate on the harder Flex positions. Low DAP implies a troublesome recreation for that position’s gamers.
DAPs by Recreation for Week 1 2019
This metric table accommodates the entire DAP panorama for week 1.
The info current consists of:
- Recreation Quantity
- Opponent Run Passing Protection DAPs
- Defenses with Straightforward Run,
- Straightforward Move,
- Straightforward Each,
- and Robust Both
- Opponent Workforce
- QB, RB, TE, and WR DAP Scores confronted by the Staff
The highs and lows confronted by every staff by position has been emphasised by colorization.
FYI – SF vs TB has each teams defenses rated as straightforward – pressure a few of their key gamers into Flex or DFS lineups
Week 1 Sunday Afternoon Recreation Script Metrics
DET vs ARI
- DET favored by 2.5 factors
- Common Passing Expected 47.5 complete points
- ARI faces a balanced defense whereas DET RBs get a simple dashing landscape.
In ARI, David Johnson can rating vs a -0.4 DAP. He’s a 93 ranked RB. The WRs Kirk and Fitz are ranked on the mid-60s vs a -1.7 WR DAP. The QB Murray has excessive uncertainty which hurts the passing recreation. ARI must be behind and DJ hopefully can earn his metrics by way of move catching.
DET ought to run and run and KJ has a not shot to collect a number of TDs until CJA is the red-zone guy. In DFS CJA might get a shocking score and exercise. Golladay and Jones additionally ought to get their average as properly vs -Zero.3 WR DAP. DET defense might be a DFS play to gather on Murray’s errors.
MIN vs ATL
- The sport has a predicted Average Passing at 47.5 complete factors
- The Vikings are the favourite by Four points vs ATL
- MIN will get a simple protection to struggle into.
- MIN QB, RB, and WR are all dealing with straightforward +Four DAPs.
- ATL is the underdog and faces a troublesome Dashing and Passing Defense from MIN
- ATL best choice is the RBs dealing with a -Zero.7 DAP while the QB/WR go towards a -Four and -8 WR DAP robust.
Prepare dinner at 96, Thielen and Diggs at 92 and 90 rankings seem to be strong plays in DFS. DFS stacking with Cousins? Play all even Rudolph might surprise with a rating. The Four level unfold appears low to me.
Freeman at 76 seems the perfect play. Julio and Ridley ought to be ok however don’t anticipate a growth recreation from them. Hooper has a much less robust DAP to struggle into and he might gather for you
BAL vs MIA
- Low Passing Anticipated at 37 Complete Factors
- BAL is favored by 7 over MIA
- BAL gets a simple begin tot he 2016 season dealing with an MIA defense that’s straightforward in dashing and passing.
- RBs for BAL must be the key to the BAL win however the TE and WR can gather towards MIA, The game complete could possibly be greater. Notice for week 2 BAL ought to look higher than thought vs MIA
- MIA on the flip-side faces a troublesome BAL defense towards dashing and passing. Observe the MIA TE could possibly be a surprise (DFS event play?)
Jackson might acquire a number of scores bypassing and dashing. Ingram figures to collect and we should always see which BAL WR is the WR1? I might be watching the WR pecking order as Boykin, Brown, and Snead are primarily sitting on waiver wires.
MIA RBs face robust -6 RB DAP. Hence their decrease rankings Drake vs Ballage look ahead to usage. Curious to their usages beneath stress as MIA figures to be enjoying from behind. The wild-card is FITZ who can pressure performs (INT or TDs). Could possibly be a pass-happy recreation from MIA. In that case, I help Wilson and Parker at mid 45s. Watching Preston for usages.
NYJ vs BUF
- NYJ is Favored by 3 points
- Low complete points at 40 with less passing
- NYJ face a simple dashing protection. Bell starts out robust in week 1
- Warning NYJ faces a troublesome passing defense. Caution on Darnold and TE/WRs.
- BUF gets a nice straightforward passing protection and Allen gets a chance to supply for you
Bell must be the story for the NYJ at 89 rankings vs a +2.Eight RB DAP. Anderson is dealing with a troublesome state of affairs and will look worse than regular. Purchase low cost in Week 2. Interested by and watching QE and JC usages.
BUF Allen and his WRs gather vs +8.Eight WR DAP. John Brown is the play in DFS however clarity in Beasley, Foster, and Jones is lacking and I urge warning. Notice they are going to be flattered by the week 1 matchup on your week 2 considering. BUF and NYJ DST can both be strong plays as properly.
LAR vs CAR
- Excessive Passing Expected at 50.5 Complete Points.
- LAR favored by Three over CAR
- All move catchers in play from each teams
- LAR gets a simple move protection DAP of +2.8 WR and a couple of TE DAP.
- CAR fights right into a balanced protection but TEs at +1.5 DAP and are the most effective DAP.
- CAR passing continues to be common and must be on board for production at QB +0.Four/ WR+Zero.1 WR DAPs. RBs at -Zero.4 DAP, nevertheless.
Gurley fights into a troublesome dashing protection of -3.7 RB DAP. He must be pass-catching for scoring. I anticipate Woods, Cooks, and Kupp to collect. Kupp wants the TDs for a full play. All WRs are at +80 Rankings. Nice trifecta (DFS Stack with Goff?)
CAR should have its method in dashing and passing. Hence the shoot-out prediction. CMC has a mean recreation at 100 ranking. Olsen surprises and Thomas might additionally gather PPR points but low rankings of 56 and 14. Moore and Samuel must be in play as properly at 77 and 67 rankings. Watching Hogan for further analysis for his utilization.
SEA vs CIN
- Decrease Passing Anticipated
- 44 complete recreation points
- SEA is favored by 9 points and faces a simple protection from CIN in dashing and passing
- SEA RBs will get +6.1 RB one of many easiest RB DAPs of week 1
- CIN faces a balanced protection
- The CIN RBs have the perfect defense landscape of +1.1 RB DAPs.
- CIN QB, TE, and WR haven’t any benefit. TEs are dealing with a troublesome -2 TE DAP!
Carson ranked at 94 ought to cleared the path by way of +6 RB DAP. Strong Cash gameplay in DFS. Lockett at 87 additionally will score. The difficulty is that if SEA is just too far forward the dashing recreation shall be in effect. Anticipate Penny to point out us if he has progressed from a rookie. SEA protection is a strong play as nicely.
CIN RBs of Mixon and Bernard ought to be the show dealing with a +1.1 RB DAP. Observe both SEA and CIN seem to be predicted to use RBs and thus the decrease complete recreation factors of 44. Curious to see the Mixon vs Bernard usages early vs late within the recreation if CIN is behind. Boyd should come on within the second half and justify his use in your DFS and seasonal lineups.
CLE vs TEN
- Complete Recreation Points at 45.5 so Common Passing at greatest
- CLE is favored by 5 points over TEN
- CLE does need to battle into a troublesome dashing and passing protection
- The CLE RBs battle a -5.5 RB DAP, whereas the TEs go towards a -3 TE DAP and the WRs vs -2.Three QB DAP.
- CLE WRs ought to do nicely ar +1.5
- TEN the underdog faces a neater protection in dashing and passing.
- TEN RBs get +1.5 DAP, TE at +Three DAP, QB at +1.2 DAP and WR DAP at +Zero.5
OBJ should gather multiple scores vs a +1.5 WRs DAP. Landry WR should gather PPR points as properly and is ranked at 71. Nevertheless, Njoku has a troublesome -Three.2 TE DAP and perhaps he scores. Warning. Finally, CLE has Chubb at 95 ranked vs a -5.5 RB DAP robust. Reduce.
TEN should use Henry rather a lot to sluggish the game down. Hence the decrease group points for the game. Henry is ranked at 76 and will get a rating. Curious as to what Lewis does. I’ll watch him for usages.
Walker the TE also strikes the chains at 75 rating vs a +Three.1. Walker is a strong DFS event play. Corey Davis at 67 also merits a play vs a +0.5 WR DAP. Fascinating to see Humphries and Brown play and their usages.
DAL vs NYG
- Complete Recreation Factors at 45 predicting a mean passing based mostly games
- DAL is favored by 7 factors and will dominate
- The Cowboys face a simple dashing defense at +1.9 RB DAP. TE additionally has a pleasant TE DAP of +1.2
- DAL QB WRs may have some resistance at Zero and -1.Four DAPs
- NYG faces a troublesome robust DAL protection at dashing and passing
- NYG RBs vs -1.1 RB DAP and the QB/WR robust at -1.4 and -Four.8 DAPs
- NYG TEs have the most effective probability for a passing score vs +1.7 TE DAP
Elliot (66 rating damage concern) faces the straightforward +1.9 RB DAP given by the NYG defense. He should do properly but might be on a snap rely. We’d see Pollard more than typical.
Is TE Witten (18 ranking) back? He will get a softball +1.2 TE DAP and could score given the harder -1.4 WR DAP. Elliot slows the sport down and thus the decrease passing anticipated. The tandem of Gallup (60) and Cooper (88) get their possibilities vs a -1.4 WR DAP however DAL might not want them within the latter part of the sport.
NYG get a troublesome week 1 begin from the DAL protection. Barkley (100) will wrestle vs a -1.1 RB DAP however still acquire his due. Wanting ahead to Engram as he can score vs a +1.7 TE DAP and is an effective DFS play.
Shepard wants to start out robust with Tate out and is ranked 69 vs a troublesome -4.Eight WR DAP. Warning on all NYG WRs. This recreation goes by way of Barkley and Engram. If NYG is behind they usually change to pass-happy time, thus seals their fate.
LAC vs IND
- Low to average passing at 44.5 complete recreation points predicted
- LAC favored by 6.5 points vs the IND
- The Chargers (LAC) get a balanced protection to play into at house.
- LAC TE will get a +Three.8 DAP (star of passing plays) while the RBs get a mean defense landscape. LAC QB and his WR do have a harder panorama at -1 and -7 DAP
- IND will get a simple dashing protection to face at +2.4
- IND passing is predicted to be lower vs a -2.2 QB DAP, -0.9 TE and -5.5 WR DAP
Rivers gather utilizing Ekeler (70) and Henry (87). Henry a money recreation TE. Ekeler might take off and growth this recreation. Jackson the RB can acquire within the red-zone as properly.
Perhaps a Rivers Ekeler and Henry Stack in DFS? Allen ranked at 91 should struggle for PPR points vs a -7 WR DAP as can M Will. Caution for money video games and gambles for tournaments.
The sport appears to arrange for Mack (75) vs a +2.4 RB DAP. Nevertheless, the IND dropping behind will harm Mack and assist Hines (44). Warning. Brissett is ranked low at 28 vs a -2.2 QB DAP and Hilton (79) vs -7 WR DAP.
The sport script might get to IND pass-happy time. That forces the passing recreation. Hilton can acquire some PPR factors. The TEs also would seem to be in play as properly. Ebron and Doyle are ranked at 66 and 55 vs a-Zero.9 TE DAP. The TE may need an advantage vs the WRs.
KC vs JAX
- KC is favored by Four points vs Jax
- The game script is for top passing for a pleasant 52 complete recreation factors (nice for PPR)
- KC, nevertheless, fights into a troublesome dashing and passing JAX protection.
- The KC RBs face a -Four RB DAP and the WRs face a -8 WR DAP with the -2 QB DAP.
- KC does get a pleasant -0.2 TE DAP to get Mahomes an outlet for passing.
- JAX likes to run to arrange fewer passes. They face a simple KC defense for both dashing and passing.
- JAX QB vs +3.5 QB DAP and WRs getting a +2.3 DAP recommend above-average JAX move activity. The JAX RBs additionally get a sweet +5.5 RN DAP as well as the TEs at a +Three.8 TE DAP. JAX can upset on this panorama.
KC needs to step as much as get the robust JAX protection off their recreation! Mahomes is the highest QB this week but he has to battle in JAX. Faces a troublesome -2 QB DAP. Anticipate to score regardless however perhaps not a growth recreation. The RBs vs a -Four RB DAP together with an RBBC appears to limit McCoy and Williams (ranked 84 and 58). Interested to see Darwin T and his position?
The KC WRs have the category to struggle right into a -Eight WR DAP nevertheless it doesn’t appear to be a breakout recreation for Hill or Watkins (99 and 63). Kelce must be the game-winner for KC and rating 1 to 2 occasions. He fights a -Zero.2 TE DAP.
The game might be close and that is good for Hill and Kelce and not a lot for the RBs. Caution in DFS.
JAX gets to select find out how to assault KC. The KC defense appears straightforward. Foles can cross but is extra of a recreation manager and might be utilizing RB Fournette (93) to score points. Which may lower the KC time on offense for a JAX benefit. Foles has been getting Dede W chemistry and Dede at 78 ought to get his share of PPR and perhaps a score.
This recreation exams the JAX defense early and I am within the results. DFS stacking might be Foles with Dede and choice of another WR but not in a cash recreation. Fournette might help JAX upset the KC staff. Vegas says shoot-out and PPR players want for that as nicely.
PHI vs WAS
- PHI is favored by 10 points and the sport is predicted to have common passing from 46 complete factors.
- PHI faces a balanced defense with a simple WR DAP of 1.9 and a QB DAP of +0.6. Passing favored. The PHI TEs will face a troublesome day towards a -1.9 TE DAP, nevertheless.
- The PHI RBs get a league-average defense of -Zero.2 RB DAPs. If PHI will get forward they could gather extra PPR points than expected.
- WAS additionally will get a break going right into a PHI protection that’s type to QB and WRs (+1.5 and +6 DAPs). The game can have more passing than thought. Nevertheless, the TEs may have a troublesome day vs -2.Eight TE DAP. A combined bag for passing as WAS makes use of it TEs closely.
- WAS RB will get a mean RB DAP of -Zero.2 and could surprise.
Wentz at 85 ranking gets a +Zero.6 and that means a barely above average day as his WRs Jeffrey 78 and Jackson at 65 battle into a simple +1.9 WR DAP. They will rating 2 to three occasions. Look ahead to JJ for future acquisition later within the season! Does Aghlor have a task?
The RBs Sanders 64 and Howard at 60 ought to hold the WAS protection on its toes. They will gather but as RBBC the RB PPR pie goes to be sliced 2 methods. They will do better if the sport will get out of hand and PHI rushes to manage the sport.
The power of PHI was the TEs final yr. Ertz and Goedert at 94 and 40 should earn their maintain vs a troublesome -1.9 TE DAP!. They might miss out on the passing bonanza.
Wentz stack with Jeffery and Jackson in DFS?
Keenum ranked at 12 is just not properly supported as the WAS is considered on the league bottom. He goes up into a pleasant +1.5 QB DAP and may shock. DFS gamble with a stack?
The WAS WRs are a set of confusion. It is unclear the WR1 and so forth pecking order. Look ahead to this info. Richardson ought to be the WR1 however ranked at 35 and Quinn is the slot PPR guy at 34. They do inherit a pleasant straightforward protection landscape of +6.
Guice 57 gets to point out his type vs a mean RB DAP of -Zero.1. No excuses for him. Look ahead to his position vs Peterson 47? Is that this an RBBC? Assume Thompson 42 will acquire passes and he truly can get extra traction if the PHI staff goes off on them.
Reed 45 if he plays will get another probability to get in damage hassle as PHI is hard on TEs at -2.8 TE DAP. Considerations for his health. Davis might inherit a nice position later within the season
DFS stack Keenum Thompson and Richardson? gamble!
TB vs SF
- TB is favored at house vs SF by 1 point. Toss-up.
- The whole recreation factors predicted to be at 50 and that means quantity a excessive passing recreation
- The high passing and points are because of the degree of the defenses. Each defenses are straightforward thus the perfect passing group wins. It could possibly be the last group with possession wins. Anticipate a shoot-out
- TB faces a simple RB and WR Defense DAPs of +1.9 and +3.Four. The TB TE faces the toughest DAP of -2.7
- SF will get a fantastic QB, RB, TE, and WR defensive landscapes. They need to all feast.
Winston ranked at 82 passes and acquire nice factors in your workforce. He might slip in a dashing TD as nicely. He connects to Evans and Godwin ranked at 97 and 87. Robust plays vs a +3.Four WR DAP. Howard the TE might not get a justifiable share of the passing vs a -2.7 TE DAP. Use him but know he may have higher days forward.
The RBBC from TB appears to be a mixture of Barber 52 with others Jones/Ogunbowale and so forth. I did not rank Ogunbowale this week as he will be the RB 3. He might move over Jones as a third down move catcher. Watch record for positive. Barber should get nearly all of dashing but the state of affairs just isn’t clear. Some RB ought to do properly vs a +1.9 RB DAP.
DFS Stack in cash? Winston with Evans and Godwin?
Jimmy G will get an opportunity to flash his expertise in an excessively favorable away recreation. He is at 57 vs a +3 QB DAP. I’ll have been harder on him due to the uncertainty round him. I anticipate we’ll get a transparent image for the next weeks if our drafts of him have been a good suggestion!
Jimmy G’s WRs collectively get a pleasant straightforward panorama of +Four.4 WR DAP. The difficulty is the shortage of full readability of the SF pecking order. I have Pettis 70 > Goodwin 50 > Samuel 43. Its seems that each one might score and thus arduous to select a player for DFS. Pettis for money and Goodwin/Samuel for tournaments.
Kittle was the superb TE from 2018. He acquired a considerable amount of yardage after the catch. He faces a pleasant +1.7 TE DAP and will acquire PPR points and score.
The dashing aspect for SF is also a simple journey for the RBBC Coleman and Brieda (Ranked at 73 and 64) vs a +2.9 RB DAP. Arduous to assume they acquire numerous PPR points if the passing is working and TB is maintaining. Watch the usages.
DFS Stack Jimmy G Kittle and Pettis?
Good Luck in Week 1 I shall be doing the Sunday Night time and Monday Video games in other articles coming Sunday and Monday morning.
Week 1 Sunday Afternoon Recreation Script Metrics