Gus and Ali, a real-life couple and followers of Survivor, might be individually rating the Survivor Season 38 castaways into two classes, Scorching or Not, based mostly on who they assume has potential longevity within the recreation. Hots are indicative of castaways who we expect performed properly this week or who’re setting themselves up for fulfillment; Nots are indicative of castaways who we expect didn’t and aren’t.
Go forward, hit us together with your greatest shot. We’re in all probability improper anyway, however that’s why it’s enjoyable!
GUS: DAN “WARDOG” DASILVA – NOT
Oh alright effective. Wardog is overplaying considerably. I imply, yeah, he swung a vote round from Kelley to Chris… however what was the purpose in doing that? All he did was value himself a loyal ally. It appears as if the vote was modified much less as a result of Wardog is especially savvy as a participant, and extra as a result of David and Rick have been involved about pissing Wardog off in the long term – demonstrating that what I had perceived as steadiness and consistency may very well be coming throughout to his fellow tribemates extra like stubbornness and obstinacy. With a swap arising, Wardog will most certainly discover himself within the minority each when it comes to former Manu tribemates and certain matched towards a Manu who would have relatively the vote went the opposite method this previous week. His recreation might be going to hinge on whether or not or not he can construct belief with Kama.
ALI: DAN “WARDOG” DASILVA – NOT
“The issue is, I belief Wentworth far more than I belief Chris. So I feel, ‘perhaps it’s not Wendy or Wentworth, perhaps it’s Chris.’”
Each episode up to now, we now have seen the Wardog try and flip the vote to a goal he prefers. Now, two out of these 3 times has been profitable, however to what finish? First episode, he intervened in a unanimous vote for completely no strategic benefit. Why change the goal to Wendy? Wardog isn’t going to work with Reem, so he ought to simply let her go and maintain his head down. Second episode, Wardog dug in his heels about Keith to the purpose the place everybody commented about it. Wardog needed to get Wendy out three days earlier than, so why not simply let her go? Why does he have to regulate every little thing? Third episode, Wardog needed Wendy out as soon as once more, however when an ally got here to him with the thought of eliminating Wentworth, as an alternative of convincing that ally to place the goal again on Wendy, he utterly flips the script and places the goal on that ally. Once more, I ask, why? If Chris is so loyal to Wardog that he’s prepared to provide Wardog info on the danger of his personal recreation, why would Wardog need him gone? Chris didn’t go to Wardog and demand to get rid of Wentworth; he merely advised him about an alternate plan and requested Wardog’s opinion. If that is how Wardog rewards loyalty within the recreation, he’s not going to have many associates going ahead.
GUS: RICK DEVENS – HOT
Rick performed it protected this week and going right into a swap that’s what you need to do. When confronted with the selection of creating an enormous transfer and voting out Wentworth (and aggravating Lauren and Wardog) or taking it straightforward and taking out Chris (and solely annoying Wendy [and Chris, sure, but that’s not something he can know is an issue at this point]), Rick selected the trail that might make him the fewest enemies. So far as Kelley, Wardog and Lauren know, he’s by no means had it in for Kelley, which means that within the occasion he finds himself swapped onto a tribe with a type of three, it’s potential they’ll be capable of function as a unit fairly than instantly ditching each other within the hope of mercy from Kama.
ALI: RICK DEVENS – HOT
“I’ve been pushed in a nook now the place I’ve to betray… someone. I’m a villain now. I’ve was a villain.”
The cutest villain of all time. Rick has all the advantages of David’s recreation, with none of the drawbacks which may make Dave a goal sooner or later. My one concern is that Rick may take the autumn for David as his lieutenant, however for now, I’m longing for Rick’s possibilities.
GUS: WENDY DIAZ – NOT
DON’T RELEASE THE CHICKENS. WHAT IS WRONG WITH YOU. THIS ISN’T QUIRKY OR FUN, IT’S SABOTAGE AND PANDERING TO THE AUDIENCE. Wendy appears to know that she’s on the underside, so she’s taking the J’Tia route of simply burning her camp down round her and laughing. For my part, the worst factor that may occur to a season of Survivor is when a participant decides they haven’t any probability to win they usually simply begin messing round. I might go on about Wendy, however I gained’t. She’s enjoying terribly and inflicting issues for everybody, and I’ve no endurance for it.
ALI: WENDY DIAZ – NOT
“I all the time stated, ‘if my tribe gained the chickens, I’d launch the chickens.’”
Oh man, Wendy… Just like the chickens subsequent week, it appears like Wendy’s senses have flown the coop. There isn’t any logic to the choices that she makes, and I’ve to confess, it’s fairly enjoyable to observe. Whereas she’s burning up my display, her gameplay is something however Scorching. I’m hoping this swap will maintain her round just a little longer, however that ankle isn’t doing the woman any favors. I feel the main takeaway from this week is that this; don’t depart the individual on the underside alone round any provides.
GUS: LAUREN O’CONNELL – HOT
Lauren nonetheless has an Idol. She’s additionally an enormous Joe fan, and she or he might discover herself on a tribe with Joe. I’ve obtained a number of religion in her.
ALI: LAUREN O’CONNELL – HOT
“That might be psychotic.”
Lauren goes right into a swap with allies and an idol. If anybody is trying to take out one of many Manu tribe, they aren’t going to suspect that Lauren is the one with the idol, and she or he has loads of shields in entrance of her that they’ll goal as an alternative. She’s the Manu member to observe.
GUS: KELLEY WENTWORTH – NOT
It’s most certainly that Kelley will discover herself subsequent week on a tribe with three Kamas and a Manu who was making an attempt to get her out this week. She’s obtained no probability of discovering an Idol aside from ending up on the third tribe’s seashore. Until she manages to swap to the tribe with each Aubry and Joe, I’m very involved for her Survivor recreation.
ALI: KELLEY WENTWORTH – NOT
“Kill or be killed.”
Earlier than we dive into Wentworth’s gameplay this week, I simply needed to say how hilarious it was when the flint went lacking at camp and Wentworth instantly had flashbacks to her time on San Juan del Sur when the flint went lacking at Hunahpu. It’s simply her staring into area, saying, “Don’t do that to me, guys. Don’t do that to me.” Return and watch it with that in thoughts. It’s gold.
Wentworth has had a goal on her again each episode to date. Then again, she’s managed to construct relationships with Lauren and Wardog which might be robust sufficient that they’re prepared to vote together with her and share info together with her (apart from Lauren’s idol, however I feel that this spells extra positives for Lauren’s technique than it does negatives for Wentworth’s gameplay). Sadly for Wentworth, I feel her popularity has put a goal on her again that’s solely going to get greater with time.
GUS: DAVID WRIGHT – HOT
David is enjoying arguably the perfect recreation of the season to date. The whole lot that I stated about Rick additionally applies to David, however WAY MORE so. Dave is the only returnee to have a robust base of beginner gamers on his aspect (Wentworth has Lauren, type of) and he’s managed to fly beneath the radar from a gameplay and strategic menace perspective. I used to be involved that David can be unable to play if he wasn’t enjoying from the again, however he’s managed to cover himself extremely nicely on this group – together with discovering simply the best group of newbies to ally himself with. Dave’s in an excellent spot for a swap.
ALI: DAVID WRIGHT – NOT
“It’s my Survivor Spidey sense, and it’s telling me proper now, ‘goal Wentworth.’”
David’s fixation on Wentworth is beginning to really feel somewhat obsessive. This week, it appeared like each phrase different out of his mouth was “Wentworth.” Granted, this might very a lot be the results of modifying, however there was clearly sufficient materials to splice collectively, and he’s been concentrating on her particularly for 2 votes now. Two weeks in a row, David’s clear goal has not left the sport, so it appears he doesn’t have as a lot management as I initially thought.
I consider David’s considering is, ought to he have the ability to get rid of a number of of the returnees, he could possibly slip underneath the radar. Whereas I feel that might be true, I really feel it’s too early to start drawing strains within the sand and trying to exert this a lot management over the sport. Fortunately, David was in a position to make use of Chris as a scapegoat, so Wentworth has no concept that he was concentrating on her. Nevertheless, Wendy is aware of that David was planning on concentrating on Wentworth, and she or he’s proven herself to be an unpredictable participant. It seems that David uncared for to incorporate Wendy within the vote this week, which can turn into main hassle if Wendy goes full J’Tia: Agent of Chaos subsequent week. Wendy might determine she’s had sufficient of loyalty to David and throw him beneath the bus. And why shouldn’t she? Wendy has confirmed that she shall be loyal to David, solely to be omitted of two votes in a row. Loyalty is a two-way road.
GUS: JOE ANGLIM – NOT
Joe is sensible to his being in peril from his Kama allies, however there’s little or no he can do about it. If he tries to flip to Manu on the swap, I fear that he’ll simply get focused after the very fact. I’m unsure what Joe’s going to have the ability to do within the subsequent few weeks aside from simply win at challenges.
ALI: JOE ANGLIM – NOT
“We’re type of on the underside of the barrel.”
The swap couldn’t have come at a greater time for Joe. That being stated, it’s all the time robust to foretell what might occur at a swap. Odds are, Joe will find yourself on a tribe that has a big contingent that desires to get out returnees. Joe has a chance to construct new relationships with different individuals, however he hasn’t been profitable to date. Due to the returnees, this season has moved at a a lot quicker tempo than it might usually. In a typical season, Wendy would have left final episode, however the newbies should assume a number of steps forward. Whereas usually, Joe can be a shoe in for the merge (however not survive for much longer), it’s fairly attainable that the gamers will probably be trying to remove a menace earlier than he can struggle for particular person immunity.
GUS: AUBRY BRACCO – HOT
That idol scene was probably the most pure and wonderful factor ever. I’m thrilled for Aubry having discovered an Idol, and I feel this swap provides her a very good alternative to make use of it – probably. It’s very probably that her Kama tribemates will try and take her out, pulling a quasi-Alec Merlino and throwing a tribe majority for the sake of getting out a participant they see as a menace. Ali may name this fanfiction, however I feel it’s utterly potential and that Aubry may discover herself idoling out, say, Julia or Ron.
ALI: AUBRY BRACCO – HOT
“I’ve achieved almost every little thing in Survivor besides win and get an immunity idol.”
Like I stated, “by no means underestimate Aubry Bracco.” When Aubry is in a troublesome spot, she goes to discover a strategy to hold her recreation going. That type of resilience provides Aubry the power to outlast time, after time, after time (take word, Rupert). The second Aubry began crying discovering that idol, I began crying too! However extra than simply my affection for Aubry, going right into a swap, she’s in a a lot better place than fellow returnee, Joe. Regardless of how the chips fall, Aubry has one thing in her pocket to guard her going ahead. I’m additionally inspired by the confessional whereby she described her Survivor bucket listing containing solely two issues: discovering an immunity idol and profitable. Aubry has managed to cross a big-ticket merchandise off her record, and that confessional jogged my memory a number of a confessional of Adam’s throughout MvGX through which he stated, “the one factor left to do is win.” Regardless, that confessional definitely wasn’t a nasty signal, and I’m wanting ahead to seeing how issues go for Aubry down the road.
GUS: VICTORIA BAAMONDE – NOT
That scene with Victoria getting stunned by Joe was hilarious. As quickly because the cameraman started to maneuver, I knew one thing foolish was going to occur, and I used to be not dissatisfied. It’s surprising to me that Victoria might make such a blunder – she’s on a abandoned seashore, you’d assume it will be just a little simpler to note someone sneaking up behind you – to not point out that this blunder has left her able the place she might simply be a prime goal for both Aubry or Joe. The upcoming swap might be going to interrupt in her favor, but when she’s on a tribe with one of many returnees, I discover myself worrying for this New York waitress.
ALI: VICTORIA BAAMONDE – NOT
“That is our first probability and we should always get to play earlier than they do.”
One time, in fifth grade, I used to be speaking to a pal about an issue I used to be having with one other pal, and once I appeared behind me, that woman was proper there listening to every thing I stated. I’ll always remember that second, and it was definitely a horrible look. It occurs to everybody sooner or later or one other, however you by no means need it to occur on Survivor. Seeing this episode satisfied me that David Bloomberg wants so as to add “concentrate on your environment” to his listing of Survivor guidelines. Victoria was so keen to speak technique with Ron, that neither of them took it upon themselves to show their heads 360 levels. Heck, Ron solely actually wanted to look straight forward, so I blame him greater than Victoria. However wow, that second was not good.
The excellent news is that Victoria is doing all the fitting issues. She has an alliance of six, which is invaluable on this recreation. However now, Aubry and Joe have affirmation that the newbies are coming after them proper when they’re going right into a swap. And Joe particularly talked about Victoria and Ron as being notably troublesome for him to learn, giving him little incentive to need to work with them going ahead. When the tribe ought to have a united entrance, they’re fractured, and it’s going to be very straightforward for classy gamers like David Wright and Kelley Wentworth to seek out these gaps.
GUS: RON CLARK – NOT
See above commentary on Victoria for my ideas on Ron. His open plotting towards Joe and Aubry RIGHT IN FRONT OF JOE (and from a spot the place he might MUCH extra simply discover Joe) means he simply may discover himself as a goal earlier than lengthy. His menu of benefits can also be nugatory at this level, and until he can use it as a makeshift pretend Idol, I don’t know that he’s going to be in an awesome place for for much longer.
ALI: RON CLARK – NOT
“It’s a matter of deciding which one of many three you need to vote out.”
I can’t reiterate sufficient how hilarious it was that Ron actually wanted to look on to his proper to see Joe squatting there. How was Joe capable of sneak up on them that simply? Is Joe a ninja? Does his mustache give him particular sneak powers? And I can’t assist however take into consideration the truth that Ron is a instructor! I train after-school drama to youngsters, and even from these experiences, I do know that you’ve to concentrate on your environment always. This ought to be second nature to Ron! What occurred?! Ron’s alliance is out within the open, and his benefit has expired. His gameplay will get an F from me this week. Ron, see me after class.
GUS: ERIC HAFEMANN – HOT
Eric’s doin’ good. He’s within the huge alliance. Kama could be very massive. Hooray. Yay. Not a lot else to say at this level.
ALI:: ERIC HAFEMANN – HOT
It was a quiet episode for Eric this week. Sadly, his alliance obtained uncovered, which spells hassle for Eric’s gameplay. Nevertheless, can I actually penalize him for others’ errors? The truth that he’s in an alliance in any respect is a sign that he’s enjoying nicely. Finally, the warmth was extra on Ron and Victoria. Going ahead, Eric’s problem prowess could also be what saves him, and I feel the probabilities he’s eradicated subsequent week are low.
GUS: AURORA MCCREARY – NOT
Aurora doesn’t even know the remainder of her tribe was considering of voting towards her this previous week. One of many downsides of getting your tribe win each single immunity earlier than the swap is that you simply by no means study who’s actually towards you – and Aurora may do not know that she’s utterly alone among the many newbies. Joe and Aubry might need to work together with her, however that’s it. As soon as the swap occurs, it’s possible that she’ll have the numbers over Manu – however she doesn’t have a lot else going for her aside from that.
ALI: AURORA MCCREARY – NOT
Final week, I famous that each one the newbies apart from Aurora have been expressing curiosity in eliminating the returnees. I started to fret that, ought to Aurora not be on the identical web page as the remainder of the newbies, it’d sign some hassle brewing for her recreation. This concept was confirmed this week. Sadly, Aurora has discovered herself on the outs. Equally to Aubry and Joe, this swap couldn’t have come at a greater time, however I can’t say that she is enjoying nicely if she wants a swap to save lots of her recreation.
GUS: JULIE ROSENBERG – HOT
Julie too is within the giant alliance. Kama continues to be very massive. Julie’s doing fairly nicely. However actually, nearly the one factor that she’s obtained towards her is that she may get focused as a slight legal responsibility in challenges; however that’s depending on a number of elements.
ALI: JULIE ROSENBERG – HOT
Julie wrestling with Jeff over the idol was lovable, but in addition in all probability slightly obnoxious to the opposite tribe. We’ll see if this hurts her going ahead. Gameplay sensible, Julie is working inside the majority alliance going right into a swap with the bigger tribe. I feel Julie is safe for now. She’s been a reasonably vocal presence within the premiere, and I can’t assist however assume that her confessional about ladies discovering idols suggests (like with Angelina) that Julie’s story is probably not over. Regardless of Julie’s standing as an “older lady,” she managed to keep away from being focused early on, and I’m hoping she is going to have the ability to endear herself to her swap tribe as nicely.
GUS: GAVIN WHITSON – HOT
He’s doing properly. I don’t have lots else to say. The Massive alliance. Kama. Nice.
ALI: GAVIN WHITSON – HOT
I’m not completely positive how one can rank Gavin this week. We haven’t seen a lot of him up to now few episodes, however we all know that he’s within the majority alliance and he’s in search of idols. I feel Gavin is doing a pleasant job laying low early on within the season, whereas nonetheless clearly enjoying. I’m hoping that Ron and Victoria didn’t blow up his spot. In the event that they did, then I feel all of the indicators level to the 2 of them being focused over Gavin.
GUS: JULIA CARTER – NOT
ALI: JULIA CARTER – NOT
I’m simply making an attempt to be as humorous as Gus. Sue me. But in addition, it’s true.
For this season, any participant who chooses to reside on the Fringe of Extinction will seem right here as one among “The Extinguished.” Every week they continue to be within the recreation, they are going to be given a label of both “Kindled,” which means we expect they’re in it for the lengthy haul, or “Ashen,” which means we expect they’re not.
GUS: REEM DALY – KINDLED
Reem’s hanging in there. She has Keith giving her power; if Keith leaves she’s acquired Chris to assist her out. I feel she’s in it for some time.
ALI: REEM DALY – ASHEN
“I used to be prepared to boost that mast… However now, I really feel like I’ve to remain to ensure [Keith’s] okay.”
If Reem is simply staying on Extinction Island to take care of Keith, and I’m not considering that Keith goes to be within the recreation lengthy, I can solely surmise Reem will comply with shut behind.
GUS: KEITH SOWELL – ASHEN
Keith’s enthusiastic about having rice. Let’s see if that lasts.
ALI: KEITH SOWELL – ASHEN
“Oh my god.”
Candy Keith, I simply don’t assume you have got it in you to outlive on Extinction Island for the rest of the sport.
GUS: CHRIS UNDERWOOD – KINDLED
Chris is pissed. He’s not leaving.
ALI: CHRIS UNDERWOOD – KINDLED
“Screw these guys. I’m getting again within the boat.”
Chris discovered a troublesome lesson about belief this week. He overestimated his relationship with Wardog, and he received burned (or ought to I say snuffed) for it. I feel having his torch extinguished lit a fireplace beneath his butt. And, in contrast to the opposite two, I feel Chris has the bodily means to thrive on Extinction Island.
TRASH TALK ZONE
ALI: Okay, let’s struggle. First, I used to be proper about Aurora, and I used to be proper about Chris, AND I used to be proper about Wardog… I need to level out that I virtually by chance referred to as him Wardong, and I wanted everybody to know.
GUS: Sure. That’s all true. However you have been incorrect about Lyrsa.
GUS: Dave’s doing FINE.
ALI: Right here’s my reasoning, David has betrayed Wendy, who we already know shouldn’t be probably the most secure individual on the planet. He has gone to her twice with the thought to focus on Kelley. I’m nervous that Wendy goes to go to Wardog and let him know that David is the one who got here up with the thought to focus on Kelley.
GUS: Wendy isn’t sufficient of a wildcard to take out David until he rolls a 1 and finally ends up on a tribe together with her. There’s a 20% probability of that taking place, and I really feel like she’s STILL a greater goal in that case. And, why would Wardog consider Wendy? He can’t stand Wendy.
ALI: Besides David can truly win. Who’s Wendy going to win towards?
GUS: It’s pre-merge. Wendy will probably be infamous for letting the chickens go. Individuals will probably be (I hope) cautious of her wackiness.
ALI: Until she turns into a Phillip. Wendy is a really tempting goat. David is an precise menace. If there’s any week David is in hassle, it’s this one.
GUS: You’re nonetheless banking on David ending up on a tribe with JUST Wendy. Not one of the different gamers need him out. Positive, they’d push for him over themselves, however I don’t assume David is anyone’s prime goal. Apart from, Kama nonetheless hasn’t gone to a tribal council; they could fracture Goliath-style within the new tribes.
ALI: Not simply Wendy. Wardog, Kelley, or Lauren in the event that they discover out previous to the swap, it might flip them towards him after which the place does that depart David? If Wendy tells them earlier than the swap, David is in hassle. Regardless, Wendy having filth on David is definitely not good for David’s recreation. Wardog has made it clear that folks coming for Kelley get a one-way ticket to Extinction.
GUS: However Wendy doesn’t have any kind of social traction within the tribe. Her solely ally simply received voted out and she or he’s (per what we noticed within the preview) about to launch Manu’s chickens. Why would they consider her? They’ll need to homicide her, not strategize alongside her.
ALI: I additionally really feel that as a result of David is extra of an identical sort to Aubry, if he swaps onto a majority Kama tribe, he could be in a bind and his good work can be undone.
GUS: Yeah, David may be swap-boned. That may be a risk, however I feel it’s at greatest a 1 in Three or 1 in four risk. I don’t assume he’s out this week.
ALI: I don’t assume he’ll be out this week, however I feel the swap isn’t nice for his recreation.
GUS: Yeah, it’s not – it’s actually not. My Scorching was extra of a mirrored image of his gameplay final week than it was a forecast for his possibilities this week. He actually put himself into the most effective spot attainable.
ALI: Truthful. I feel this can be a matter of differing standards. I fear for David going into this week, and David’s narrative has been revolving round Kelley for a number of episodes. I’m nervous they’re headed into battle quickly and I’m scared for David’s possibilities ought to that come to a head.
GUS: All completely authentic issues to fret about. You need to dedicate a few phrases to Reem?
ALI: Positive! The rationale why I assumed Reem is perhaps in hassle is as a result of she was saying that she would go away if nobody got here to Extinction. I fear about her endurance in mild of that confessional. I feel that Keith might give up sooner or later, and I don’t assume she’ll be far behind. I don’t assume Chris would make her keep in the identical means. She actually stated that fear for Keith is making her keep within the recreation.
GUS: I really feel like Reem simply wants some firm. I feel she’ll keep for at the least this coming episode.
ALI: We’ll see. I feel if Keith quits, it might set off some dominos and she or he might get caught up in that. It’s a brief struggle for us this week!
GUS: Not a lot happening to struggle about! Kama’s actually not had any episode time, so we don’t even know something about a number of of them. Julia’s not even had one confessional!
ALI: Right here’s hoping the swap shakes issues up somewhat! I feel Kama and Manu are each able to fracture, so hopefully the video games start.
GUS: Ought to we do predictions? I really feel like we aren’t actually educated sufficient.
ALI: Okay, I assume we’ll do two simply randomly? I feel Wendy and Kelley going house. Staying… I’m going to say… Julie and Rick.
GUS: Could possibly be eradicated are… Wendy and Aurora. Our safes are… Lauren and Aubry.
ALI: Good concept, choosing the gals with the idols. Tune in subsequent week to see how improper we’re!