Should you need PGA DFS to treatment your bracket being trashed by Thursday afternoon, I submit DK targets every week on Pretend Pigskin. My objective every week is to supply targets in every worth range, identifying two to 3 low-cost/affordable flooring targets as core pieces for all my lineups.
In DFS golf, it’s all about getting your guys to the weekend, in the beginning. The best way DK costs their fields out, I virtually by no means will play anyone 10okay or above. With one thing as random as golf performances week to week, they merely don’t justify the funding in my thoughts.
Usually, I’ll fill out my roster with guys in the $7,100-$9,000 range. The elements I think about are event history, course format versus player strengths, current type, and prime bounce back candidates who’re enjoying properly, but occurred to overlook the minimize the prior week.
One issue does not necessarily outweigh one other. And, like all good speculative decision-making process, instincts all the time play a task. In fact there’s my personal favorite factor–as is identical with other fringe DFS sports activities–the DK pricing mannequin has no clue what the fuck it’s doing!
Last season, I persistently laid out the idea that rostering gamers five figures and above simply was not value it week to week. Scroll towards the top on my outcomes web page to see how I used the Masters outcomes as evidence to help this. The point is, golf performances week to week are very erratic. Usually, I might recommend the great ole diversification technique.
Going a step additional, in contrast to most other DFS video games which have positions, golf is simply choosing six guys which are doing the same actual factor in a given week. That stated, in all probability greater than another DFS sport I’ve played, leaving 1-2k on the desk is completely fantastic. Do not really feel such as you HAVE to spend your complete cap.
All through this season I will publish extra thorough analyses of why both approaches make DFS golf a bit totally different from football, hoops, and baseball. And the way ridiculously futile it makes it when making an attempt to win. All that in mind, let’s take a look at the Valspar Championship (VC) info to make clear some unique characteristics that you could be need to think about before lineups lock.
Course: Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead) Palm Harbor, FL Par 71 Yardage 7,340
After final week’s star-studded subject on the PLAYERS, the tour takes a few of its skills to the final leg of it’s Florida fling for a paint firm. Valspar has been the newest in a numerous line of company funders to take a shot at this golf event, that is sponsoring for the sixth consecutive yr.
Innisbrook Resort, however, has performed host to this event every year since 2000, when it turned an official PGA Tour event. So, there’s loads of course history performance to reference–taking a look at you Mr. Furyk!
Although it might be one of the more unsung events on tour enjoying more as a Masters tune-up, the essential factor is that there’s nonetheless loads of gambling and DFS implications to be sorted out. And the course itself does not care about being part of a critically acclaimed occasion. It truly performs very troublesome.
Copperhead has plenty of closely wooded fairways and elevation modifications. Just like what I discussed for the Honda Basic, many execs will opt for longer irons and woods off the tee for better control.
Scoring here won’t be straightforward. It persistently ranks inside the highest 10 non-major programs on tour yearly. Enjoying protection and grinding out pars might be thought-about a win on most of the longer par 4s, and undoubtedly on all 5 of the mammoth par 3s.
Also just like the Honda Basic’s “Bear Lure”, Copperhead has it’s own gimmicky three-hole stretch know as the “Snake Pit”. The ending three hole stretch starts with an enormous boy 475 yard par on 16 that often performs as one of many toughest holes on the course.
For sure, anyone enjoying with a lead, or rostering the leaders in DFS by means of 15 holes on Sunday must recall the clever words of the good Winston Wolf…
Listed here are the previous the winners and their scores from the final five years.
Keys to Success
With a few of the driver recreation being taken out of play, the stats I’ll take a look at most listed here are strokes gained: approach-the-green, and GIR (greens hit in regulation) percentages from longer distances. As mentioned, gamers will principally be pressured hand over far off the tee in favor of more management, making for an extended strategy photographs.
Lengthy to mid-range iron efficiency will play a factor on all the longer par 4s (holes 3, 6, 9, 10, 16, 18), and undoubtedly on the five par 3s that have a combined common distance over 200 yards. In case you’re not counting, that might be 11 of 18 complete holes.
Which offers a chance for me to insert my emotions about that straightforward, but, compelling knowledge…
Chalky McChalkerson (5 figures to round 9.1k–11 gamers)
It’s that sort of hard-hitting analysis that retains me going after I don’t cash in all my DFS lineups like final week. Shifting on from the PLAYERS, I proceed my DFS golf PSA to usually fade five-figure guys week to week.
PGA Public Enemy #1 Patrick Reed has as stellar of a current monitor document right here as anybody. Keegan Bradley is in great type. He also is the appropriate fit statistically ranking 6th in SG: strategy, and 7th in GIR proportion from 200 plus yards.
Jim Furyk was quietly having a cute Lefty like renaissance coming into Sawgrass. Now, not so cute. His sole runner up end has him second in Ryder cup points!
His nine cashed checks in 10 VC appearances demonstrates his recreation’s match right here. And statistically, Furyk doesn’t have any obvious weak spot coming into this week.
In every relevant strokes gained stat for VC, he owns a prime 40 rating on tour. This consists of 13th on strategy, and ninth complete. Mickelson, you’re formally on discover as “greatest previous guy” for the 2019 season.
Sweet Spot (9k to 7.1k–40 players)
All of these guys mentioned would not have the Dustin Johnson flooring, however they do provide a prime 10 upside at a a lot friendlier worth. This is the vary I are likely to concentrate on most, which I consider gives probably the most and greatest worth/flooring/upside mixtures on every week to week basis.
Lucas Glover $9,000
2019 season, Cuts: Eight/10 Prime 25s: Eight Prime 10s: four Wins: 0
Course Historical past, Cuts: 11/15 Prime 25s: 5 Prime 10s: 1 Wins: zero
The case was there when it comes to stats, type, and an honest monitor report at Sawgrass last week.
Then golf happened.
An opening round 76 proved to be too much of an obstacle to make the weekend in such a deep area. He responded the subsequent day with a ho-hum even par 72. So it wasn’t like his recreation went utterly off the rails.
That’s why I really like Glover this week in a terrific bounce back spot with a thinner subject, and tons of experience at Copperhead. While we’re with reference to bounce backs…
Adam Hadwin $Eight,200
2019 season, Cuts: 9/11 Prime 25s: four Prime 10s: three Wins: 0
Course History, Cuts: 3/4 Prime 25s: 2 Prime 10s: 1 Wins: 1
Statistically Hadwin’s 2019 metrics do not recommend he can be a scorching commodity coming into his fifth VC appearance. Nevertheless, he adopted up his first and solely PGA Tour victory in 2017’s VC with a strong T-12 last season.
I feel Hadwin’s affinity for his greatest skilled efficiency will make for a nice spot to keep away from missing his second consecutive weekend. One thing that’s happened solely as soon as since September of 2017. If it helps, he additionally met his spouse on Tinder. Google it.
Mispriced Gamers (greatest values)
As a lot as I take pleasure in criticizing the employees at DK for gross negligence in the best way some of their fields are priced out, this week is actually fairly good. The most important case I might make to be bit larger in the 8k vary in Chesson Hadley and Copperhead abuser Steve Stricker. Both have the robust strategy video games that fit Copperhead.
Hadley is trying to bounce back from a missed weekend at the PLAYERS. Earlier than last week, he was coming off consecutive prime 20 finishes.
Stricker will probably be out to proceed his taming of the Snake pit. He’s cashed 5 checks in his last six VC appearances, all ending inside the top 15. That included three finishes T-Eight or greater.
Final season, I started including my core players to build round in all my lineups. I try to determine targets before costs are released to stay targeted, and avoid modifying my lineup 2,000 occasions ten minutes before lock.
These choices are players that I consider have prime 25 flooring with prime 10 upside, and an inexpensive case to win. I was rubbish final week. Extra detailed results are to return as the season moves alongside. This week’s alternatives:
Sneaky Low % Owned (7k and under–88 players)
One in every of my favourite issues to do in any DFS sport is throw darts. Whether it’s golf, soccer, or hoops it is advisable to hit on guys which might be going to offer some separation energy.
As much as I like the Stensons and Furyks of the world, it’s probably so do many others which in flip gained’t help with the actually excessive place GPP finishes all of us need so we will give up our job Monday.
That’s why you must be prepared to take some possibilities. There are many methods to go about it. Contrarian–choosing people who make no actual sense.
Perhaps a youthful dude that has tons of talent (spoiler alert) who’s sure to break out with a high place finish sooner or later. Either approach, these are the blokes you will probably have to hit on for the GPP glory all of us hope to realize.
Dylan Meyer $6,500
2019 season, Cuts: 1/2 Prime 25s: 1 Prime 10s: 1 Wins: 0
Course Historical past, Cuts: 1/1 Prime 25s: zero Prime 10s: zero Wins: 0
I’ve been writing about Meyer since his first PGA Tour appearance in 2017’s John Deere Basic when he nonetheless had novice standing. He hasn’t had a PGA begin since final November. In the meantime, he’s missed four cuts on the Net.com tour.
GPP translation: Good. He’s young so huge swings in his recreation are anticipated. Backside line is that he has the talent make the weekend.
Part of me even thinks he’ll thrive extra in PGA starts with the large boys. I reference his T-20 end in final yr’s U.S. Open as help of this principle. Which, by the best way, was his first begin having professional standing.
- Adam Schenk $6,900 — Second yr on tour, enjoying a lot better this season. Stats are up across the board.
- Wydham Clark $6,900 — Driving the Honda Basic performance comparability as a predictor for Valspar into the bottom.
- Charley Hoffman $7,000 — Enjoying pretty terrible. Oddly sufficient he has great GIR rankings from long distance this season. Performed here tons with relative success.
Good luck at Copperhead! Don’t hesitate to succeed in out on twitter compliments and insults are all the time welcome.