For those who want PGA DFS to treatment soccer withdrawal, I submit DK targets every week on Pretend Pigskin. My objective each week is to supply targets in every worth vary, figuring out two to 3 low-cost/affordable flooring targets as core items for all my lineups.
In DFS golf, it’s all about getting your guys to the weekend, initially. The best way DK costs their fields out, I virtually by no means will play anybody 10okay or above. With one thing as random as golf performances week to week, they merely don’t justify the funding in my thoughts.
Usually, I’ll fill out my roster with guys within the $7,500-$9,000 vary. The elements I contemplate are occasion historical past, course format versus participant strengths, current type, and prime bounce again candidates who’re enjoying nicely, however occurred to overlook the minimize the prior week.
One issue doesn’t essentially outweigh one other. And, like several good speculative decision-making course of, instincts all the time play a task. In fact there’s my private favourite issue–as is identical with different fringe DFS sports activities–the DK pricing mannequin has no clue what the fuck it’s doing!
Final season, I persistently laid out the idea that rostering gamers 5 figures and above simply was not value it week to week. Scroll towards the top on my outcomes web page to see how I used the Masters outcomes as proof to help this. The purpose is, golf performances week to week are very erratic. I might usually recommend the great ole diversification technique.
Going a step additional, in contrast to most different DFS video games which have positions, golf is simply choosing six guys which might be doing the identical actual factor in a given week. That stated, in all probability greater than some other DFS sport I’ve performed, leaving 1-2k on the desk is completely superb. Don’t really feel such as you HAVE to spend your complete cap.
All through this season I’ll submit extra thorough analyses of why each approaches make DFS golf a bit totally different from soccer, hoops, and baseball. And the way ridiculously futile it makes it when making an attempt to win. All that in thoughts, let’s check out the PLAYERS Championship (PC) info to make clear some distinctive traits that you could be need to contemplate earlier than lineups lock.
Course: TPC Sawgrass (Stadium course) Ponte Vedra Seashore, FL Par 72 Yardage 7,245
The brand new schedule change has given golf followers and degenerates an early season deal with. Beginning this season, golf’s “unofficial fifth main” strikes into early March.
The PLAYERS Championship shifting up on the schedule does a few issues properly in my thoughts. One, the apparent is that we now get one golf main in 4 consecutive months beginning in April.
And two, it supplies some early season sizzle for the eventual main steak all of us will dine on in April on the Masters. It’s type of just like the Golden Globes kicking off award present season.
It’s enjoyable. A majority of the large identify stars are out. It’s very nice to win. However no film promo beings with, “starring two-time Golden Globe nominated actress…”.
One the celebs of the present is TPC Sawgrass itself, which has formally performed host annually since 1982. Its epic 17th gap par three island inexperienced is the stuff of golf folklore, and has produced its share of drama through the years. Listed here are the final 5 winners:
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Final yr, Simpson actually pulled away from the sector with medical ball putting and a new-found placing stroke. Nevertheless, getting all the best way to 18 photographs beneath par is extra the exception than the rule at Sawgrass.
Keys to Success
The standard profitable rating will land someplace between 10 and 14 beneath par. The gamers which are capable of handle the course, and picks their spots correctly on when to be aggressive will probably be taking the profitable strategy for Sawgrass.
I’m targeted on a few issues this week when it comes to targets. When it comes to stats, strokes gained tee-to-green is my most important focus. As said, guys who can keep affected person, play inside themselves, and are capable of play course administration properly, are who I might be most bullish on.
The opposite is type. Gamers who look like enjoying with a excessive degree of confidence proper now are my choice. My superior metric for instance that’s persistently contending in your begins (sure that’s was my uncanny sarcasm).
For instance, a participant to be named later within the Longshots part would completely match that description proper now. However first, let’s talk about/assessment how sensible my chalk strategy is and was final week.
Chalky McChalkerson (5 figures to spherical 9k)
Fading the large canine for the second tier worth vary performed out virtually nearly as good as J. Lo’s weekend. Now, it in all probability didn’t improve your internet belongings by 5 million, nevertheless it undoubtedly received you above the money line.
Most significantly, it validated my standing as a PGA DFS genius. Besides the half about not waking up in time to seek out out Jason Day withdrew. However let’s not speak about what was doubtless one of many prime 30 worst moments of my life. As an alternative let’s concentrate on the desk under.
Huge take aways:
- Rory was the one five-figure man that justified his worth
- Of the 32 golfers that completed T-29 or greater 16 have been in that candy spot worth vary
- This consists of ten gamers that had prime 10 finishes together with the winner Molinari
Once more, I can’t stress it sufficient–Jason Day ruined my life final week…… Sorry. No. Usually keep away from five-figure guys in DK. Particularly this week being a purple carpet like event the place nearly all of the A-listers present up.
Nevertheless, if I needed to decide one from the chalk this week, it’d be Koepka. His current profession penchant of displaying up in huge occasions could be very engaging. And I all the time anticipate gamers of his caliber to bounce again robust from a missed minimize, as was the case final week at Bay Hill.
Particularly in Koepka’s case, I’ve details to help this wild concept. He hasn’t missed back-to-back cuts since early 2017.
Add within the information that he’s cashed checks in three of 4 PC appearances and a barely extra price range pleasant worth, I really feel protected with Brooksy as my chalk play of the week.
Candy Spot (9k-ish to round 7.5k)
With out sounding an excessive amount of like your fantasy mum or dad once more, load up on as many guys on this vary as you possibly can. Per normal, tremendous deep fields sometimes end in very delicate DK pricing.
For instance guys like Stenson, RCB, Fleetwood, and even Molinari’s costs are literally down for the PC from one week in the past. I might nonetheless a lot favor their worth/flooring/upside mixtures in favor of the chalk this week.
Patrick Cantlay $eight,700
2019 season, Cuts: 6/7 Prime 25s: 6 Prime 10s: four Wins: zero
Course Historical past, Cuts: 2/2 Prime 25s: 2 Prime 10s: zero Wins: zero
One other participant whose recreation has been rock strong is Cantlay. I’ve written about his exceptional off-the-course battles all through the final two years. When you haven’t…
As soon as you realize what he’s been by means of, it’s exhausting to not root for this man. Or for those who simply don’t care, and have a chilly lifeless black coronary heart inside, then I assume stats can be higher.
The previous UCLA Bruin owns a constructive metric in each vital strokes gained class since final season, except 2018’s placing. From tee-to-green he completed ranked 10th final yr, and has continued the development rating seventh on tour this season so far.
Just like a Molinari final yr, the subsequent step for Cantlay is to contend for/win the large occasions. The best way he has performed going again to final season, I anticipate that taking place sooner slightly than later.
Adam Scott $eight,200
2019 season, Cuts: 5/7 Prime 25s: four Prime 10s: three Wins: zero
Course Historical past, Cuts: 14/17 Prime 25s: 9 Prime 10s: four Wins: 1
For those who love course horses Scott might be the most secure guess to money a examine this week. The deep subject has dropped his worth wayyyyy out from the 5 determine vary he was at for the Honda Basic a number of weeks in the past.
Sure, that very same few weeks in the past once I talked about him as my favourite five-figure play the place he went on document his first MC in 4 begins, in fact. However that’s the excellent news!
Talking of not lacking back-to-back cuts, this Aussie hasn’t had that occur in PGA occasions since June. Of fucking 2010! No means he would do this to me/us this week, proper?
Perhaps not fairly as excessive degree as Cantlay, however Scott has performed stellar, constant golf recently. He maintains just one destructive stokes gained metric in 2019, and ranks 30th on tour in SG: complete.
Even his notoriously shitty placing has been up this season. All of this could assist Scott money one other Sawgrass verify.
- As soon as once more Fleetwood and Molinari for the aforementioned causes can’t be ignored.
Mispriced Gamers (greatest values)
As I’ve talked about, the mixture of such a deep subject and smooth pricing makes it troublesome to distinguish between these classes. For instance, I might argue Stenson and RCB ought to be within the eight.5-9k vary.
However I might additionally argue Fleetwood and Molinari ought to be nearer to 10okay. So, each are a bit mispriced in my thoughts. Till DK adjusts, all these guys will proceed to be my favourite worth performs.
- Lucas Glover $7,100 — Enjoying his greatest golf in years. In all probability off to the most effective begin to a season in his profession. All constructive SG metrics in 2019. Ranks 16th tee-to-green, sixth general on tour.
- Zach Johnson $7,000 — Has cashed 12 checks in 14 profession PC appearances. Must get it going quickly if he needs to be an element within the FedEx standings. Good protected weekend candidate with slightly upside.
Longshots (7k-ish and under)
Eighty-four of the roughly 145 participant subject are priced at beneath 7k. Which makes for tons of intriguing names on this vary that undoubtedly have the upside to do some injury at Sawgrass. As standard, there isn’t any doubt a few prime 10 finishes from this vary may have a serious impression on GPPs.
Andrew Putnam $6,500
2019 season, Cuts: 7/9 Prime 25s: three Prime 10s: 2 Wins: zero
Course Historical past, Debut
I wrote about Putnam’s out-of-nowhere ascension a couple of occasions final season. Admittedly, he doesn’t naked out as an awesome match statistically for this week.
However he’s taken his recreation to a totally totally different degree during the last 10-12 months. After simply lacking the Tour Championship ending 33rd (prime 30 in FedEx standings qualify to finish the yr), Putnam has already put himself proper again within the combine this season.
He arrives at his first PC look rating 23rd within the standings, and is on tempo to beat all his private bests set final season when it comes to cuts made, prime 25s, prime 10s, and earnings. I’ll take all these developments when taking photographs on this vary.
- Jason Kokrak $6,700 — Shares plenty of similarities to my feedback on Glover. Hasn’t missed a weekend in 2019, and the stats help it.
- Keith Mitchell $6,800 — He adopted up his breakthrough Honda Basic win with a T-6 end final week, on a a lot greater stage at Bay Hill. That’s a man who’s feeling good about his recreation. I feel he continues the validation tour this week on his method to making all of it the best way to East Lake (Tour Championship) to finish the season.
Final season, I began together with my core gamers to construct round in all my lineups. I attempt to determine targets earlier than costs are launched to remain targeted, and keep away from modifying my lineup 2,000 occasions ten minutes earlier than lock.
For instance, I’d auto-play Fleetwood so long as he stays in his worth vary whatever the event. These alternatives are gamers that I consider have prime 25 flooring with prime 10 upside, and an inexpensive case to win. Three of my 4 made the minimize final week. Extra detailed outcomes are to return because the season strikes alongside. This week’s alternatives:
Good luck at TPC Sawgrass! Don’t hesitate to succeed in out on twitter compliments and insults are all the time welcome.