For those who want PGA DFS to treatment soccer withdrawal, I’ll been posting DK targets every week on Pretend Pigskin. My objective each week is to determine two to 3 low-cost/affordable flooring targets as foundational items for all my lineups. This manner, you begin by boosting your remaining worth per participant within the vary to roster as many excessive flooring/excessive upside guys who all of us anticipate excessive place finishes from.
For instance, this week I’m not going to return at you with scorching strategies like Dustin Johnson and Bryson DeChambeau. What I’ll do is level out that rostering two 5 determine choices will depart your common remaining worth per participant round $7,000. That is the worth vary I’ll give attention to every week.
In DFS golf, it’s all about getting your guys to the weekend at the beginning. The best way DK costs their fields out, I virtually by no means will play anybody 10okay or above. With one thing as random as golf performances week to week, they merely don’t justify the funding in my thoughts. Usually, I’ll fill out my roster with guys within the $7,500-$9,000 vary. The elements I think about are occasion historical past, course format versus participant strengths, current type, and prime bounce again candidates who’re enjoying properly, however occurred to overlook the minimize the prior week.
One issue doesn’t essentially out weigh one other. And, like several good speculative decision-making course of, instincts all the time play a task. In fact there’s my private favourite issue–as is identical with different fringe DFS sports activities–the DK pricing mannequin has no clue what the fuck it’s doing! Earlier than discussing targets, let’s check out the Genesis Open info to make clear some distinctive traits that you could be need to contemplate earlier than lineups lock.
Course: Riviera CC, par 71, 7,300+ yards Pacific Palisades, CA
As one of many signature early season tour occasions, golf wraps up it’s West Coast Swing at Riviera CC. The well-known Los Angeles nation membership is certain to be crammed with its share of face lifts, and Hollywood lushes for an additional deep area, that includes a overwhelming majority of the world’s prime 25 golfers. No matter occasion identify modifications through the years, Riviera Nation Membership has been the fixed, enjoying host to this February event all however twice since 1973. Past that, Riviera CC has hosted a number of main championships and allegedly was the primary place O.J. went to seek for the actual killers.
Keys to Success
If chicks actually dig the lengthy ball, then contemplate me the Jennifer Lopez of fantasy golf this week. Riviera sometimes will align higher for bombers, that may handle their means across the course’s tighter fairways. Strokes gained: tee to inexperienced will probably be a important stat for strong outcomes this week. Basically, I might have my default choice settings towards guys which have the perfect mixture of distance and accuracy off the tee. Particularly, seven of the eight most troublesome holes (holes 2, 15, 9, 5, 13, three, 12) when it comes to handicap, are longer par fours. Gamers who’re capable of rating, and/or keep away from hassle right here may have one of the best probability of sleeping in Sunday for a late tee time.
Whereas longer hitters could have a bigger margin for error, there have been loads of examples of the extra precision gamers having constructive outcomes. Simply final yr, Kevin Na adopted up his T-Four 2017 end at Riviera with a runner up examine. And for some ungodly purpose, Aaron Baddeley has about as stellar of a course monitor document (13/16 cuts made, eight inside prime 30, one win) in LA you would ask for.
It’s sort of like once I exit golfing. Regardless of how nicely I’m smoking my 235 yard drives, it actually comes right down to how good my misses are with longer irons or hybrids on longer par fours. After that, my three putt avoidance statistic often determines whether or not my rating begins with a one or 9.
Anyway, the purpose is that it may be executed, shorter hitters simply have a smaller margin for error making an attempt to regulate longer golf equipment with their approaches on the hardest holes Riviera has to supply . However sufficient about me and my quest to be a mid 80s golfer. Let’s speak targets!
Keith Mitchell $6,400
2019 season, Cuts: 5/eight Prime 25s: three Prime 10s: zero
Course Historical past, First look
There are a number of standouts beneath 7k whose strengths match the Riviera format. Mitchell is coming off a robust rookie yr the place he was one occasion away from making to the Tour Championship. What virtually acquired him there was his driving means.
The previous Georgia Bulldog completed 10th on tour in driving distance, and ranked seventh in stroked gained: off-the-tee final season. Most of all, his PGA Tour profile web page signifies cliff diving in Greece as a bucket record merchandise. As a result of I’ve nothing higher to do, I learn a whole lot of these. I nonetheless can’t determine if they’re actual or not.
Jhonattan Vegas $6,500
2019 season, Cuts: 5/7 Prime 25s: 1 Prime 10s: 1
Course Historical past, Cuts: Four/6 Prime 25s: 2 Prime 10s: zero
Shifting on, Vegas additionally does his greatest work when he lets the large canine eat. If I discover myself in a DK price range disaster, I’ll put my cash on a few guys who’ve the power to only blow it on the market off the tee and work out the remaining.
Kyle Stanley $6,600
2019 season, Cuts: Four/6 Prime 25s: three Prime 10s: 2 Wins: zero
Course Historical past, Cuts: 2/Four Prime 25s: 1 Prime 10s: zero
Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaatttttt?! Fairly tough for a prime 40 participant on the planet who’s coming off one of the best yr of his profession. Stanley’s ascension the previous couple seasons has been constructed on a basis in fact administration. Statistically, his strengths have all the time been his driving accuracy and strategy recreation. Each are crucial to having success at Riviera. Nevertheless, like many execs, an inconsistent brief recreation–primarily with the wand–tends to be his downfall.
He’s inexplicably fizzled in his final two outings since returning state aspect from Hawaii within the Sony Open in January. However who can blame him? He simply received by means of the vacations coming off an ideal yr. And who cares about January and February golf anyway? They are surely the worst two months of the yr.
I imply, if I’ve to reveal being trapped inside for this bitter chilly, darkish, snowy, wet, God forsaken frozen midwest tundra whereas being wildly unproductive (until you contemplate watching each Netflix, Amazon, Hulu present and award nominated film whereas consuming the whole lot in sight as productive), I say Kyle Stanley can miss a pair cuts. In different phrases, until there’s some unknown damage, it’s only a matter of time earlier than he will get his season on monitor.
At their worth, simply making the weekend is sufficient to justify rostering any of those three. Stanley, by far, having the perfect profession trending trajectory of the three (completed 17th and 18th in FedEx Cup final two seasons) makes the previous Clemson Tiger my favourite worth/flooring/upside combo within the subject this week.
Luke Listing $7,400
2019 season, Cuts: three/6 Prime 25s: 2 Prime 10s: 2 Wins: zero
Course Historical past, Cuts: 2/three Prime 25s: 1 Prime 10s: zero
Coming in an in depth second to him is that this man. He matches the profile rating seventh on tour final yr in SG: Tee to inexperienced with probably the most measured rounds of anybody within the prime 10. He has additionally perennially been one of the longest drivers since enjoying on tour. Not sufficient? High quality.
The Vandy product is amongst a handful of men who’ve been on the verge of breaking via for that elusive first profession PGA Tour win. You realize he going into each begin motivated with the mindset to win. Properly… You might not realize it however I do. Whether or not it’s somebody like him, Tommy Fleetwood, Tony Finau (no I don’t actually matter the Puerto Rico win in 2016), Tyrrell Hatton, Cameron Smith (excluding his staff occasion win), or Rafa Cabrera-Bello they’re wanting to get that monkey off their again. Proper or improper, I put a bit of premium on that. For instance, assume Francesco Molinari final season.
Like Stanley, placing has been Listing’s largest disadvantage statistically. However even that has proven substantial enchancment in 2019–albeit a small pattern measurement. Kevin Tway ($7,100) can also be somebody who looks like he ought to be nearer to the 8k vary based mostly on all of the aforementioned elements.
As talked about, this can be a loaded area. I get as tempted as anybody else to throw DJ or Bubba on the market contemplating their plain monitor data right here. Nevertheless, with guys like Fleetwood ($eight,600), Cantlay ($9,000), and quite a few others in that $7,500-9,000 candy spot with phenomenal flooring/upside combos, my head is telling me to withstand the safety phantasm that the larger names present.
Final season, I persistently laid out the idea that rostering gamers 5 figures and above simply was not value it week to week. Scroll towards the top on my outcomes web page to see how I used the Masters outcomes as proof to help this. The purpose is, golf performances week to week are so random I might usually recommend the great ole diversification technique.
Going a step additional, in contrast to most different DFS video games which have positions, golf is simply choosing six guys which might be doing the identical actual factor in a given. That stated, in all probability greater than another DFS sport I’ve performed, leaving 1-2k on the desk is completely high-quality. Don’t really feel such as you HAVE to spend your whole cap. All through this season I’ll publish a extra thorough evaluation of why each approaches make DFS golf a bit totally different from soccer or hoops, and the way ridiculously futile it makes it when making an attempt to win.
Good luck in LA! Subsequent week’s tour occasion in Puerto Rico doesn’t draw a majority of the highest gamers, who’re gearing up for the next week’s occasion in Mexico. The WGC Mexico occasion will function roughly 70ish of the most effective gamers on the planet, and is a no minimize format. For these causes, my subsequent full publish might be for the Honda Basic in late February. Within the meantime, don’t hesitate to succeed in out on twitter insults and feedback are all the time welcome.